11 picks our expert loves

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, that includes picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is the host of the HeatStrokes podcast. You can observe him on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you’ll learn under to see his favourite performs for the AT&T Byron Nelson, which kicks off Thursday at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. Keep scrolling previous Kannon’s picks, and also you’ll additionally see knowledge from Chirp, a free-to-play mobile platform that incorporates a vary of video games with engaging prizes, giving followers every kind of how to have interaction within the motion with out risking any cash.

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Following the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town, the PGA Tour has been on a run of tournaments that function huge, lengthy programs — and it continues past this week with Oak Hill Country Club internet hosting the PGA Championship subsequent week. Mexico Open host Vidanta Vallarta measured greater than 7,500 yards; Quail Hollow Club was simply lower than 7,500 yards; and this week we arrive at TPC Craig Ranch, a par-71 that’s 7,400-plus yards.

For the third season in a row, TPC Craig Ranch will host the AT&T Byron Nelson — the ultimate tune-up earlier than subsequent week’s second main championship of the season. It is a Tom Weiskopf design with vast, Zoysia grass fairways and enormous, flat, bentgrass greens. Craig Ranch has performed as one of many best programs on Tour the previous two seasons. Ok.H. Lee is your two-time defending champion, getting house with profitable scores of 25 and 26 underneath par, respectively, in 2021 and ’22. The course can stretch to 7,414 yards from the guidelines and can play as a par-71 this season after the twelfth gap was transformed from a shorter par-5 to an extended par-4.

Thundershowers and wind are within the forecast for all 4 days with temperatures within the low 80s. Steady winds wherever from 10-20 mph are anticipated Thursday by means of Saturday. That may hold the scoring down however the rain may soften up the course and switch this again into the birdie-fest we’re accustomed to. The winds are presupposed to relax fairly a bit for Sunday’s last spherical.

It is an extended course and if the rain softens it up, it’s going to grow to be even longer. But with vast fairways and never a lot tough to talk of, even the shorter titties shouldn’t discover themselves at an excessive amount of of a drawback. I did have a look at Driving Distance and Strokes Gained: Off the Tee this week however put extra emphasis on Strokes Gained Approach and Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards and from 200-yards or extra. I feel finally it will come all the way down to robust strategy/long-iron play, scoring on the par-5s and making loads of putts.

I additionally checked out Birdies or Better Gained this week, Strokes Gained: Putting (Bent grass) and the way these gamers fare on straightforward programs. Of course, I additionally took under consideration correlated programs — programs with both the identical designer or related layouts. With solely two years within the books at TPC Craig Ranch, it’s exhausting to search out an excessive amount of crossover success with different programs within the Tour rotation. What I landed on had been Port Royal Golf Club (Bermuda Championship), Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Mortgage Classic), TPC Summerlin (Shriners Children’s Open), TPC Scottsdale (WM Phoenix Open) Vidanta Vallarta (Mexico Open) and Pebble Beach.

To Win the AT&T Byron Nelson (and to Finish Top 20)

Tyrrell Hatton (14-1)

Hatton has been having an ideal season and it bought began at one among our correlated programs, a Sixth-place end at TPC Scottsdale for the WM Phoenix Open. He has since completed 4th at Bay Hill, 2nd on the Players Championship and third final week in Charlotte. Over the final 36 rounds, he’s Sixth on this subject for SG Off the Tee, third for SG Approach, 4th in Birdies or Better Gained and eleventh in SG Par-5s. 

Jason Day (16-1)

Before the Masters, Day had not had a end worse than nineteenth in 2023. He missed the lower final week on the Wells Fargo, a event he’s gained prior to now, so I’ve a hunch he needs to proper the ship this week earlier than subsequent week’s PGA Championship, one other event he has gained earlier than. Over the final 36 rounds, Day is twenty first in SG Putting (bent grass), seventh in SG Off the Tee, sixteenth in SG Approach and fifth for Birdies or Better Gained. Day completed one higher than Hatton at Scottsdale earlier this yr, taking fifth. He has two prime 10s at TPC Summerlin and has dominated at Pebble Beach with seven top-7 finishes in his profession.

Seamus Power (45-1)

Power kicked off this season on a tear however cooled off after we hit the Florida Swing. He got here by means of with a pleasant end final week although at Quail Hollow, taking 18th. He’s completed seventeenth and ninth on the Nelson the 2 occasions it has been performed at TPC Craig Ranch. He gained the Bermuda Championship earlier this season additionally has top-10 finishes at each Detroit Golf Club and Pebble Beach. He tends to play the better programs very well and during the last 36 rounds on bentgrass, and ranks tenth on this subject for SG Putting.  

Brandon Wu (65-1)

The kind has been excellent as of late for the Stanford Cardinal. He simply completed third three weeks in the past in Mexico and was runner-up there final yr. He was additionally runner-up at Pebble Beach again in February. Over the final 36 rounds, Wu is twenty ninth on this subject for SG Off the Tee, thirty seventh for SG Approach, forty fourth in Hole Proximity from 200-yards or better and 14th in Birdies or Better Gained. He additionally resides within the Dallas space so the familiarity with the course and the situations is a bonus.

Eric Cole (80-1)

The world met Cole in March when he misplaced in a playoff to Chris Kirk on the Honda Classic. Before that, he completed fifteenth at Pebble Beach and most not too long ago took fifth on the Mexico Open. He ranks fifth on this subject for SG Approach during the last 36 rounds, thirtieth for SG Par 5s and thirteenth for SG Putting on bentgrass.

Nate Lashley (140-1)

Earlier this season, Lashley completed twentieth on the Genesis Invitational after which adopted that up with a third place end in Puerto Rico. He’s made three cuts in a row and recorded a Top 30 end final week on the Wells Fargo — one other stable efficiency towards an elevated subject — after being tied for the lead by means of 36 holes. He’s completed as excessive as third at TPC Scottsdale, eleventh in Mexico, fifth at Pebble Beach, and has his solely Tour win on the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club. Over the final 36 rounds, Lashley is twenty third on this subject for SG Approach, seventh in SG Par 5s, and ranks 1st and fifth, respectively, for Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards and 200-yards or better.

Full Tournament Head-to-Head Matchups (23-18-2 YTD file)

Tyrrell Hatton (+215) over Scottie Scheffler

Matt Kuchar (-125) over Adam Scott

Brandon Wu (+110) over Aaron Rai

Eric Cole (+100) over Sam Stevens

Nate Lashley (-110) over Robby Shelton

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