13 picks our expert loves

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, that includes picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is the host of the HeatStrokes podcast. You can observe him on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you may learn under to see his favourite performs for the PGA Championship, which kicks off Thursday at Oak Hill in Pittsford, N.Y. Keep scrolling previous Kannon’s picks, and also you’ll additionally see information from Chirp, a free-to-play mobile platform that incorporates a vary of video games with engaging prizes, giving followers all types of the way to interact within the motion with out risking any cash.

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Golf’s second main championship of the season is upon us. The 105^th PGA Championship will happen at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, NY., the host course to 6 main championships because it opened for play in 1926.

Oak Hill is a Donald Ross design. It final hosted a serious in 2013, when Jason Dufner received the PGA Championship, going off at about 40-1. As we now have seen on Tour for the previous three weeks now, Oak Hill, too, is an enormous, lengthy, golf course, suited to bombers. It will play as a par-70, at slightly below 7,400 yards.

When Dufner received in 2013, he did it by driving the ball very straight, discovering the tree-lined fairways. The Oak Hill the gamers will face this 12 months shall be considerably totally different. More than 600 timber had been eliminated in 2019, as a part of a restoration by the architect Andrew Green.. The fairways stay slender, about 27 yards vast on common, however with the tree elimination, extra room has been created for second photographs via the limbs.

The tough shall be thick. Not essentially overly lengthy however dense and moist with this championship being performed in May. It was not that way back that there was snow on this a part of the nation. The greens have all been redone. Green was assigned the duty of making an attempt to revitalize a few of the unique kinds and design intentions of Donald Ross. The greens are on the Ross-like smaller facet and can have the normal Ross run-off areas. All of the bunkers had been transformed and shall be very penal with steep faces and deep wells, each across the greens and within the fairways.

Many of the statistics that I’ve checked out over the previous few weeks, in Mexico, at Quail Hollow, and final week on the Byron Nelson, apply this week. Off the tee, I thought-about Total Driving, Driving Distance, and Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. On method, I checked out Greens in Regulation Gained and Strokes Gained: Approach. I additionally checked out Hole Proximity from 175 – 200 yards and from 200+. Note that this course options 12 Par 4’s of over 460 yards, two Par 3’s stretching to 230 yards, and two Par 5’s which can be each over 600 yards.

Around the greens, I checked out Scrambling, Sand Saves, Bogey Avoidance, and Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass).

Three tournaments on the PGA Tour are held on Donald Ross designs: the Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield Country Club, the Tour Championship at East Lake, and the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club. I don’t really feel like every of those are particularly much like Oak Hill, however there’s sufficient there with a typical course designer to at the least contemplate them among the many correlated programs this week. The others that I consider have higher similarities are Muirfield Village, house to the Memorial; Bethpage Black, which hosted the 2019 PGA Championship; Torrey Pines, host of the Farmers Insurance Open and the 2021 U.S. Open web site, Winged Foot, house to the U.S. Open in 2020; Harding Park, which hosted the 2020 PGA Championship; and Whistling Straits, host of the 2015 PGA Championship. Finally, I additionally checked out Aronimink, one other Donald Ross design within the northeast that performed host to the 2018 BMW Championship as part of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

We bought again on the beam final week, hitting Jason Day outright. We additionally went 3-1-1 in our head-to-head matchups. Let’s see if we are able to proceed that development in a serious.

To Win the PGA Championship (and end Top 10)

Xander Schauffele (23-1)

Schauffle has been a Top 10-machine in majors, and he’s been dominant at East Lake with finishes of 1-7-2-2-5-4. He was 16^th at Bethpage in 2019, 10^th at Harding Park in 2020, fifth at Winged Foot in 2020, and seventh on the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines in 2021. He’s additionally been red-hot as of late. His final six begins go as follows, 2-4-4-10-5-19. Schauffele is fifth on Tour in SG Approach, 12^th in Hole Proximity from 175-200, 27^th in Scrambling, and 14^th in Bogey Avoidance. He appears primed to significantly contend as soon as once more.

Tony Finau (33-1)

I grabbed this quantity on Finau after 36-holes had been full in Mexico. I felt that he was going to go on to win, so I jumped on the worth earlier than it was chopped. He is very like Schauffele within the sense that he has contended various occasions at main championships and on the correlated programs. In reality, he received at a Ross design final summer season, profitable the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club. He tops the board in my stats this week with what he does off the tee, his contact across the greens, plus the truth that he’s No. 1 on Tour in SG Approach.

To Win the PGA Championship Outright (and end Top 20)

Brooks Koepka (23-1)

What has lengthy been stated about Koepka solely actually caring concerning the majors  was by no means extra evident than it was final month when he led the Masters for the primary three days, finally ending runner-up. He has 4 majors to his credit score together with 9 Top 10 finishes in majors since 2014. He’s received twice on the LIV Tour and comes off of a 3rd and fifth place end in his final two LIV occasions, closing with two straight rounds of 65 final week. In these final two occasions, he was fifth and seventh in Total Driving and eighth every week for Greens in Regulation. As far because the correlated programs, he was fifth at Whistling Straits in 2015, fourth on the U.S. Open in 2021, and received the Wanamaker Trophy at Bethpage Black in 2019. He additionally has Top 6 finishes at each East Lake at Sedgefield. When wholesome, Brooks stays a power in main championships.

Collin Morikawa (25-1)

Morikawa missed the lower in his final begin at Quail Hollow and in addition within the workforce occasion, the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Two weeks earlier than that, he completed tenth at The Masters. I really feel just like the time away shall be good for him to regroup and deal with capturing his second PGA Championship. While he doesn’t drive the ball like a few of the true bombers, he does common practically 300 yards off the tee and in addition will get his distance extra so with carry than with run-out, which I consider is vital this week with the moist, softer situations. He additionally occurs to be third on Tour in Driving Accuracy. If he can discover himself within the brief grass all week, he can have discovered his wheelhouse. Over the final 36 rounds, he ranks fifth in Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards and twenty third from 200-yards or higher. He’s third in SG Approach and fifth in SG Ball Striking. Morikawa has completed as excessive as sixth at East Lake and took fourth on the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines. He received at Muirfield Village once they performed the Workday there in 2020. If he’s hitting fairways and greens, he’s going to be within the combine. Over the final eight tournaments, for each the PGA and DP World Tours, Morikawa is 18th on this area for SG Tee to Green.

Viktor Hovland (30-1)

Like Morikawa, Hovland has cooled off in his previous couple of begins since ending seventh on the Masters however his driving and ball putting are so good, it makes him a superb match for this golf course. He is fourth on Tour in Total Driving. He is twenty first in SG Approach over the past 36 rounds, twelfth in Ball Striking, and ranks eleventh on Par 4’s measuring between 450-500 yards. He’s completed fifth at East Lake, fourth on the Wyndham, and has two Top 15 finishes on the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He took thirteenth at Winged Foot in 2020 and completed runner-up on the Farmers Insurance Open in 2021. Over the final eight rounds on each the PGA and DP World Tours, Hovland is second on this area for SG Off the Tee. I really feel like this week, he’s going to contend in a serious as soon as once more.

Rickie Fowler (100-1)

When I began researching this golf course a few month in the past and who could be an excellent match, I used to be shocked to see how properly Rickie ranks statistically. He is 31^st on Tour in Total Driving. Over the final 36 rounds, he ranks 17^th for SG Ball Striking, seventh for SG Approach, 13^th in Bogey Avoidance, 22^nd in Scrambling, 39^th in Hole Proximity from 175-200, and 39^th in SG Putting (Bent grass). He’s completed runner-up twice on the Memorial, was eighth at Aronimink in 2018, and it might be unimaginable to see Rickie win a serious. With the best way he’s taking part in, I feel he has an excellent shot — higher than 100-1 anyway.

Russell Henley (125-1)

Here is one other man who I consider has a greater shot than what his value is indicating. Henley will not be an extended hitter however is No.1 on Tour in Driving Accuracy. Augusta National caters to longer hitters however Henley simply completed fourth there final month. Like Morikawa, if he’s hitting from the brief grass all week, he might make a run once more for the second straight time in a serious. It wasn’t solely The Masters both as Henley has three Top 20’s and a Top 5 end in his final 4 begins. Over the final eight occasions on each the PGA and DP World Tours, Henley ranks ninth on this area for SG Approach, 18^th for SG Around the Green, fifth for SG Tee to Green, second in SG Putting, and second for SG Total. Pretty spectacular.

Gary Woodland (150-1)

In ending 14th on the Wells Fargo three weeks in the past, Woodland led the sector in SG Tee to Green. The week prior, he was third tee to inexperienced within the area in Mexico. Woodland has been taking part in very properly and together with his size off the tee and lengthy iron recreation, he makes an excessive amount of sense for this golf course. The drawback is the brief recreation as he ranks 131^st in Scrambling and 109^th in SG Putting (Bent grass) over the past 36 rounds. Still, 150-1 appears too lengthy of a value for me. He completed eighth at Bethpage in 2019, 12^th at Aronimink in 2018, and has two Top 10 finishes on the Memorial.

Full Tournament Head to Head Matchups (26-19-3 YTD)

Jason Day (-115) over Dustin Johnson

Collin Morikawa (-140) over Max Homa

Rickie Fowler (-120) over Tom Kim

Russell Henley (-125) over Mito Pereira

Taylor Moore (-130) over Tom Hoge

Who Chirp customers assume will win

Jon Rahm: 28.83%

Scottie Scheffler: 21.15%

Rory McIlroy: 9.58%

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