8 picks our expert loves

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, that includes picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. You can comply with Kannon on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer and you may learn under to see his favourite performs for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which kicks off Thursday at Bay Hill, in Orlando, Fla. Keep scrolling previous Kannon’s picks, and also you’ll additionally see information from Chirp, a free-to-play mobile platform — and GOLF.com affiliate — that incorporates a vary of video games with engaging prizes, giving followers all types of the way to have interaction within the motion with out risking any cash.

Week 2 of the Florida Swing takes us proper again to a event with elevated standing. It is the Arnold Palmer Invitational on the Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, the place simply 120 gamers comprise what’s a stacked discipline.

Nine of the Top 10 gamers within the OWGR are current, 23 of the Top 25 and 44 of the Top 50 gamers on this planet rankings are scheduled to tee it up this Thursday. Similar to the back-to-back designated occasions in Phoenix and Los Angeles only a few weeks in the past, The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass is subsequent week on the Tour schedule. As we flip the calendar to March, some “madness” on this planet of golf is probably going on faucet within the coming weeks as effectively.

The King, Arnold Palmer, took over the controls on this occasion in 1979, transferring it to Bay Hill, the membership he bought in 1976. In true Arnie trend, all the time tinkering together with his swing and his golf equipment, he did the identical over time with this golf course.

Though Mr. Palmer has handed on, the tinkering at Bay Hill continues. In the final three seasons, we’ve seen this golf course turn out to be rather more tough. The Bermuda grass greens are larger than common Tour dimension and they’re agency and quick. The fairways have been made wider and longer however the tough is about as near “U.S. Open rough”-length because the gamers see all season exterior of the most important championships. 84 sand bunkers dot the format and water comes into play on 9 of the 18 holes. From yr 2000 to 2019, 17 of the 20 profitable scores at Bay Hill have been in double-digits, 7 of which have been at -15 or higher. In the final three seasons, the profitable scores have been -5, -11, and -4.

The lack of wind final week on the Honda Classic was actually an outlier versus what we sometimes see on the Florida Swing. This week nonetheless, it appears to be like like it’s again to regular — for least a few the 4 days. Right now, the forecast is asking for calm circumstances on Thursday and Sunday however Friday and Saturday might blow effectively over 20 mph.

Bay Hill is an extended par-72 course, measuring practically 7,500 yards. All 4 par 3s are 200 yards or longer and that contributes closely to so lots of the strategy photographs right here coming from 200 yards or extra. Ten of the final 11 winners of this occasion ranked within the Top 55 on Tour in Proximity to the Hole from 200 or extra yards. Some of the larger names on this discipline that examine that field are Gary Woodland, Sungjae Im, Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Wyndham Clark, Tom Kim, Tom Hoge, Keegan Bradley, Collin Morikawa, and Rory McIlroy.

Scoring on the par 5s is essential to 1’s success at Bay Hill, as there aren’t quite a lot of actual birdie alternatives in any other case, however very like a serious championship, the golf course will take a look at all areas of 1’s sport. We’ve seen elite drivers of the golf ball win right here, elite iron gamers, and people possessing a magical brief sport. My guess is your winner should be glorious in no less than two of these three areas this week. In specific, I checked out Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, Strokes Gained: Off The Tee – on lengthy programs, Strokes Gained: Total on exhausting programs with lengthy tough, Strokes Gained: Putting – on quick Bermuda, Par 5 Scoring, Scrambling, Strokes Gained: Par 4’s from 450-500 yards, and Proximity to the Hole from 150 to larger than 200 yards.

Like TPC Scottsdale, Augusta National, and Harbour Town, Bay Hill is one other course during which we see course kind repeat itself over time, that means gamers which have carried out effectively right here prior to now, have a tendency to repeatedly achieve this. As far as correlated programs, I checked out Scottsdale. We noticed Scottie Scheffler win at each tracks final yr. I additionally checked out Quail Hollow (Wells Fargo Championship), Congaree (CJ Cup 2022), and Southern Hills (PGA Championship 2022).

To no person’s shock, Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy rank very excessive for me statistically this week however with their costs so brief, I’ve gone a bit of additional down the board for my picks. The Arnold Palmer Invitational has seen shorter-priced gamers win, nonetheless, in latest historical past, and I imagine that speaks to how demanding the golf course is and the usually very difficult climate that comes into play. If you have a look at the pre-tournament odds of the final seven winners at Bay Hill, you can find that lengthy photographs are few and much between: Scottie Scheffler (16-1), Bryson DeChambeau (12-1), Tyrrell Hatton (55-1), Francesco Molinari (33-1), Rory McIlroy (20-1), Marc Leishman (100-1), Jason Day (14-1).

5 picks to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational (and end within the Top 20)

Will Zalatoris (22-1)

I used to be making an look on SportsGrid Radio final Sunday night time, recapping the Honda Classic and waiting for Bay Hill. Willy Z was the primary identify I threw out as somebody I assumed may very well be your winner right here this week. His worth is a bit of shorter than I anticipated however I took the plunge anyway. We know he’s an elite iron participant, he ranks No. 1 on Tour for par 5’s with a birdie or higher, he’s seventh on this discipline over the past 36 rounds for SG Off the Tee, and his placing has actually come round — rating thirty fifth on this discipline over the past 36 rounds for SG Putting. Zalatoris was battling damage again within the fall however his 4th place end two weeks in the past on the Genesis Invitational tells me he’s again in control. Note, he has a tenth place end right here at Bay Hill, a seventeenth in Scottsdale, and misplaced to Justin Thomas in a playoff at Southern Hills within the 2022 PGA Championship. A recipient of the Arnold Palmer scholarship at Wake Forest University, there are some ties to The King for Willy Z. A win in Arnie’s event can be fairly a second for the younger man.

Patrick Cantlay (23-1)

I discussed that course kind or course historical past, may be very robust right here at Bay Hill. Unfortunately for our functions, that is the primary time that Patrick Cantlay will likely be taking part in on this occasion. He was glorious two weeks in the past in Los Angeles and I simply need to imagine his sport will journey effectively right here in Orlando. Cantlay ranks fifth on Tour in Total Driving, being each lengthy and correct. He is nineteenth in Proximity to the Hole from 200 yards or larger. He’s third in Greens in Regulation, sixth in Scrambling, and twenty ninth in SG Putting. He does the whole lot effectively and that’s what is required at this course. It can be value noting that he’s No. 1 on Tour in Par 4 Scoring and 2nd in Par 5 Scoring. Cantlay challenged Rahm on the Genesis and right here we’re getting higher than thrice what the value is on Jon Rahm this week. Let’s additionally bear in mind, he misplaced in a playoff to Scottie Scheffler final yr at TPC Scottsdale, considered one of our correlated programs.

Jason Day (33-1)

It has been some time since I’ve made a wager backing Jason Day however the man is sneaking up on all of us with the best way he has been taking part in the final 5 months. The former world No. 1 has performed in 10 occasions this season.  He’s missed the minimize twice however hasn’t completed worse than twenty first within the eight different appearances, together with three straight Top 10 finishes coming into this week. He’s received right here earlier than at Bay Hill again in 2016, he simply completed fifth at Scottsdale three weeks in the past, he’s received at Quail Hollow, took eleventh at Congaree again in October, and final summer season, earlier than this transition actually blossomed, he made the minimize and completed fifty fifth at Southern Hills within the PGA Championship. In this discipline over the past 36 rounds, Day is eighth in SG Ball Striking, eleventh in SG Approach, and twentieth in SG Putting. On Tour, Jason Day ranks eleventh in Total Driving — his accuracy has enormously improved, he’s thirty third in Greens in Regulation, and 4th in Scrambling.  I personally actually wish to see him returning to prominence and I wouldn’t thoughts an outright win right here this week both.

Sungjae Im (35-1)

Not fairly to the extent of Patrick Cantlay, however SungJae Im is one other participant who does the whole lot effectively with nary the obtrusive weak spot. That has been confirmed right here at Bay Hill with 4 visits to this event and finishes of twenty first, twentieth, third, and third. In the 2 areas we pinpointed earlier, Im is twelfth on Tour in Proximity to the Hole from 200+ yards and seventh in Par 5 Scoring. He has the brief sport to go together with it too, rating nineteenth on Tour for Scrambling and 78th in SG Putting. Over the final 36 rounds, Sungjae Im is seventeenth on this discipline for SG Ball Striking and fifteenth in SG Off the Tee. Against a watered-down discipline final week, Im had the stress of a former Honda winner, carrying the burden of event favourite. Now he arrives extra within the position of an underdog with the value to go together with it, however at a course at which he’s skilled very excessive stage success. In his temporary profession, Im’s had 5 Top 10 finishes within the state of Florida. I believe he’s primed for an additional if not higher.

Brian Harman (125-1)

With such a loaded discipline this week, it’s seemingly extra of a observe of choosing which elite participant goes to win. When trying on the Top 26 gamers within the OWGR, 15 of them are priced shorter than 35-1 to win this week at Bay Hill. Brian Harman is the twenty fourth ranked participant on this planet but is priced greater than 3.5 instances longer than 35-1. Is he going to win? We’ll see, however the worth does appear excessive. I discussed earlier that this week’s winner will should be glorious in two of the three areas we highlighted – both off of the tee, with the irons, or with the brief sport. Harman positively has the brief sport — that’s his power — however off of the tee and with the irons he’s not too shabby both. He ranks thirty fifth on this discipline for SG Ball Striking over the past 36 rounds and fortieth in SG Off the Tee. Harman ranks twenty first on this discipline over the past 24 rounds on exhausting programs with lengthy tough. He’s nineteenth on Tour in Par 5 Scoring and 4th in Par 4 Scoring. In his profession, he has three Top 20 finishes at Bay Hill, two Top 10’s at Quail Hollow, and completed thirty fourth within the PGA Championship at Southern Hills. Again, we’ll see if he can win it outright however he definitely has the chops to contend.

3 full-tournament head-to-head matchups I actually like

Tyrrell Hatton (-135) over Jordan Spieth

Patrick Cantlay (-125) over Justin Thomas

Scottie Scheffler (+110) over Jon Rahm

Who Chirp customers are betting on

Jon Rahm to win 33%

Sahith Theegala contender 20%

Joel Dahmen longshot 14%

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